The WTO reported that its Barometer for Trade in Goods fell below trend as global import demand weakened.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released the Global Goods Trade Barometer November Report. Accordingly, the Goods Trade Barometer, which was 100 in October, decreased to 96.2 in November. The organization predicted that global trade in goods would slow down as import demand weakened.
Readings above 100 on the barometer indicate growth above the trend, while readings below 100 indicate growth below the trend.
The report emphasized that “as the global economy continues to be shaken by strong winds”, growth in global goods trade is likely to slow in the last months of 2022 to 2023.
The report said that November’s decline in the organization’s Barometer on Trade in Goods increased by 3.5 percent in 2022 and 1 percent in 2023 due to several related shocks, including the WTO’s war in Ukraine, high energy prices and monetary tightening in major economies. It was said to be consistent with forecasts published from 5 October, which predicts commodity trade growth.
In its report on the outlook for global trade on 5 October, the WTO raised its growth expectation for global trade in goods by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5 percent for 2022. In addition, it reduced its forecast for 2023 from 3.4 percent to 1 percent, with the expectation that the slowdown in growth in large economies for various reasons would reduce import demand.
In the WTO report, it was stated that “High energy prices in Europe resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war will suppress household expenditures and increase production costs. In the USA, tightening in monetary policy will hit interest-sensitive expenditures in areas such as housing, motor vehicles and fixed capital investment.”
